Video Analysis of North Korean Missile Test

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January 14, 2016

When North Korea released footage on January 8 from a purportedly successful KN-11 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) test, analysts at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, including Catherine Dill, Melissa Hanham, Bo Kim, Jeffrey Lewis, and Dave Schmerler, analyzed the video frame by frame, ultimately concluding that the video footage was manipulated and that, despite North Korean government claims to the contrary, the SLBM test was a failure.

A full explanation of how CNS researchers analyzed the footage, and details of their conclusion, were published on the blog ArmsControlWonk.

In the Media

The CNS video analysis was heavily picked up by the media, including a broadcast by CNN, both in the United States and CNN International.

Find all Experts Quotes & Appearances in CNS in the Media.

January 13, 2016: “North Korean aircraft approaches South Korea, which fires warning shots,” CNS video analysis aired on CNN.

January 13, 2016: “North Korean Bomb Tests Are Fake,” Catherine Dill quoted in US News & World Report.

January 13, 2016: “Experts Say North Korea Faked Missile Test Footage,” Catherine Dill quoted in Popular Mechanics.

January 13, 2016: “North Korean Missile Test Less Successful than it Appears,” Catherine Dill quoted in Popular Science.

January 13, 2016: “North Korea Doctored Footage of Their Recent Missile Launch,” CNS video analysis aired on MSN Video Now This.

January 13, 2016: “South Korea: Conscripts ask to extend their service,” CNS video analysis aired on BBC.

January 13, 2016, “S. Korea president urges tough response to Pyongyang’s atomic test,” Catherine Dill quoted in Agence France Presse.

January 12, 2016: “Exclusive Interview: Analysts Say NK Submarine Missile Launch Failed,” Catherine Dill and Melissa Hanham interview by Voice of America.

January 12, 2016: “Latest N. Korea sub missile test a ‘catastrophic failure’: analysts,” Catherine Dill quoted in Yahoo news (via AFP).

January 12, 2016: “N. Korea Faked Missile Launch Video,” CNS video analysis aired on Reuters TV.

January 12, 2016: “North Korea faked subj-launched missile test footage: US experts,” Melissa Hanham quoted by Reuters.

January 12, 2016: “North Korea Is Now Faking Video Footage, Apparently,” Melissa Hanham quoted in Kotaku.

January 12, 2016: “North Korea faked ballistic missile launch video: Experts,” Melissa Hanham quoted in PressTV.

January 11, 2016: “How Far Along Are North Korea’s Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles?” Dave Schmerler mentioned in The Diplomat.

January 8, 2016, “North Korea is a joke. And that’s the problem,” Jeffrey Lewis Op/ed in Washington Post.

January 8, 2016, “How We Know North Korea Didn’t Actually Detonate a Hydrogen Bomb,” quoted in The Diplomat.

January 8, 2016, “How I Learned to Keep Worrying Even if North Korea Didn’t Test an H-Bomb,” Ferenc and Jeffrey quoted in MIT Technology Review.

January 7, 2016, “What can US do about North Korea? Six options after ‘hydrogen bomb’ test,” Melissa Hanham quoted in Fox New Opinion.

January 7, 2016, “Experto: “Pionyang no tiene recursos para pruebas de bombas de hidrógeno,” Miles Pomper quoted and interviewed in RT Spanish.

January 7, 2016, “In the Korean conflict, propaganda is the oldest weapon,” Melissa Hanham interviewed by Take Two 89.3 KPCC.

January 7, 2016, “North Korea wants an H-bomb but experts doubt it tested one,” Melissa Hanham quoted in CBC News.​

January 7, 2016, Melissa Hanham interviewed on the Arlene Bynon Show for SiriusXM.

January 6, 2016, “World Reacts to N. Korean Announcement of Hydrogen Bomb Test,” Melissa Hanham quoted in Associated Press.

January 6, 2016, “Did North Korea Really Detonate A Hydrogen Bomb?” Melissa Hanham interviewed on HuffPost Live.

January 6, 2016, “Failure or not, North Korea’s H-bomb claim troubles experts,” Melissa Hanham quoted in Politico.

January 6, 2016, “How North Korea’s nuclear program went from threats to reality,” Jeffrey Lewis quoted in CNN.

January 6, 2106, “Hydrogen bomb or not, here’s why North Korea’s nuke test is still worrisome,” Jeffrey Lewis quoted in Tech Insider.

January 6, 2016, “N.Korea test could put missile defence back in frame amid Chinese disquiet,” Jeffrey Lewis quoted in Reuters.

January 6, 2016, “North Korea Bomb Test Thrusts It Back Into World Spotlight,” Jeffrey Lewis quoted in Wall Street Journal.

January 6, 2016, “North Korea Claims That It Tested the “H-Bomb of Justice,” Jeffrey Lewis quoted in Popular Mechanics.

January 6, 2016, “North Korea says it tested H-bomb to widespread skepticism,” Melissa Hanham quoted in the Associated Press.

January 6, 2016, “The U.S. Isn’t Buying North Korea’s Claim Of An H-Bomb Test,” Jeffrey Lewis quoted in NPR.

January 6, 2016, “The World Condemns North Korea’s New Hydrogen Bomb Claim,” Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress quoted in VICE News and Reuters.

January 6, 2016, “US, S. Korea and Japan Vow Tough Response to N. Korea” Melissa Hanham quoted in the Associated Press.

January 6, 2016, “What next for North Korea’s Neighbours?” Jeffrey Lewis interviewed by BBC News Asia.

January 6, 2016, “Why Experts Doubt That North Korea Tested a Hydrogen Bomb,” Jeffrey Lewis credited for imagery in New York Times.

January 6, 2015, “Why is North Korea’s ‘hydrogen bomb’ test such a big deal?” Jeffrey Lewis quoted in Washington Post.

January 6, 2016, “North Korea’s 24-Hour Nuclear Cycle: How to track a nuclear explosion in the Twitter era,” Jeffrey Lewis in Foreign Policy.

January 6, 2016, Melissa Hanham interviewed by Gillian Joseph for Sky News.

January 5, 2016, “North Korea Claims It Just Successfully Detonated a Hydrogen Bomb,” Melissa Hanham quoted in Vice News.

January 5, 2016, “North Korea says it has conducted a successful hydrogen bomb test,” Jeffrey Lewis quoted in Washington Post.

January 5, 2016, “North Korea says it just tested a hydrogen bomb. Here’s what we know,” Jeffrey Lewis quoted in Vox.

January 5, 2016, “North Korea’s nuclear test: How we got here,” Jeffrey Lewis quoted in CNN.

January 5, 2016, Melissa Hanham interviewed by Lawrence Pollard for BBC World Service.

January 5, 2016, “North Korea successfully conducts nuclear test,” Melissa Hanham quoted in Reuters.

January 5, 2016, “North Korea’s first hydrogen bomb ‘test’ draws global ire,” Melissa Hanham quoted in Asia Times.

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